Near CertainBUYNO@ 0.94
Near CertainBUYFC INTERNAZIONALE MILANO@ 0.98
Near CertainBUYYES@ 0.99
Near CertainBUYNO@ 0.99
Near CertainBUYYES@ 0.95
Near CertainBUYNO@ 0.97
Near CertainBUYYES@ 0.98
Near CertainBUYYES@ 0.97
Near CertainBUYYES@ 0.98
Near CertainBUYFC BARCELONA@ 0.96
Near CertainBUYFC BAYERN MÜNCHEN@ 0.99
Near CertainBUYARSENAL FC@ 0.99
Near CertainBUYFC BARCELONA@ 0.99
Near CertainBUYNO@ 0.96
Near CertainBUYNO@ 0.93
Near CertainBUYNO@ 0.98

Near Certain by @realahmadkhan22 · ProphetX

Near Certain

ResolutionNew · under a day

by @realahmadkhan22Politics · Macro · Crypto · Sports · Tech · Culture · OtherActive

Buys outcomes priced 90¢+ that resolve within three days.

Risk
Track record since: Oct 13, 2026 · under a day

Return · 30d+0.10%

Equity: $10,010.05
P&L: +$10.05
Starting capital: $10,000

Equity over the last 30 days
Time	Equity	P&L in window
Oct 13, 10:10 UTC	$10,000.00	$0.00
Oct 13, 10:15 UTC	$9,997.45	−$2.55
Oct 13, 10:20 UTC	$9,996.45	−$3.55
Oct 13, 10:25 UTC	$9,992.38	−$7.62
Oct 13, 10:30 UTC	$9,977.76	−$22.24
Oct 13, 10:35 UTC	$9,981.21	−$18.79
Oct 13, 10:40 UTC	$9,986.23	−$13.77
Oct 13, 10:45 UTC	$9,987.24	−$12.76
Oct 13, 10:50 UTC	$9,987.82	−$12.18
Oct 13, 10:55 UTC	$9,983.34	−$16.66
Oct 13, 11:00 UTC	$9,982.73	−$17.27
Oct 13, 11:05 UTC	$9,982.83	−$17.17
Oct 13, 11:10 UTC	$9,986.74	−$13.26
Oct 13, 11:15 UTC	$9,981.08	−$18.92
Oct 13, 11:20 UTC	$9,984.42	−$15.58
Oct 13, 11:25 UTC	$9,983.42	−$16.58
Oct 13, 11:30 UTC	$9,980.21	−$19.79
Oct 13, 11:35 UTC	$9,981.33	−$18.67
Oct 13, 11:40 UTC	$9,982.09	−$17.91
Oct 13, 11:45 UTC	$9,982.14	−$17.86
Oct 13, 11:50 UTC	$9,983.71	−$16.29
Oct 13, 11:55 UTC	$9,984.22	−$15.78
Oct 13, 12:00 UTC	$9,985.69	−$14.31
Oct 13, 12:05 UTC	$9,986.00	−$14.00
Oct 13, 12:10 UTC	$9,987.83	−$12.17
Oct 13, 12:15 UTC	$9,989.91	−$10.09
Oct 13, 12:20 UTC	$9,992.09	−$7.91
Oct 13, 12:25 UTC	$9,995.03	−$4.97
Oct 13, 12:30 UTC	$9,995.59	−$4.41
Oct 13, 12:35 UTC	$9,998.07	−$1.93
Oct 13, 12:40 UTC	$9,997.97	−$2.03
Oct 13, 12:45 UTC	$9,998.33	−$1.67
Oct 13, 12:50 UTC	$9,998.53	−$1.47
Oct 13, 12:55 UTC	$9,999.59	−$0.41
Oct 13, 13:00 UTC	$10,000.65	+$0.65
Oct 13, 13:05 UTC	$10,000.02	+$0.02
Oct 13, 13:10 UTC	$10,001.34	+$1.34
Oct 13, 13:15 UTC	$10,002.92	+$2.92
Oct 13, 13:20 UTC	$10,005.66	+$5.66
Oct 13, 13:25 UTC	$10,005.25	+$5.25
Oct 13, 13:30 UTC	$10,008.04	+$8.04
Oct 13, 13:35 UTC	$10,009.65	+$9.65
Oct 13, 13:40 UTC	$10,013.24	+$13.24
Oct 13, 13:45 UTC	$10,010.20	+$10.20
Oct 13, 13:50 UTC	$10,010.11	+$10.11
Oct 13, 13:54 UTC	$10,010.05	+$10.05

Equity rose from $10,000.00 to $10,010.05 over the last 30 days (+$10.05, +0.10%). Low $9,977.76 on Oct 13, high $10,013.24 on Oct 13. Dashed line: equity at the window start.

Win rate: 100%of 1
Sharpe: not availableneeds 7 days
Max drawdown: 0.2%
Trades: 20
Brier: not availableno forecasts
Exposure: 17%
Avg hold: 3h
Volume: $1.8K

Daily P&L

Last 30 days, paper USD.

Near Certain daily P&L, last 30 days
Day	P&L
Oct 13	+$10.05

Exposure by category

19 open positions worth $1,695.20, $8,314.86 in cash.

Sports36%
Crypto24%
Politics23%
Other17%

Near Certain open exposure by category, marked value
Category	Value	Share
Sports	$606.73	36%
Crypto	$398.18	24%
Politics	$396.27	23%
Other	$294.02	17%

▼ BUY No
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Culture101.01 sh @ 0.966$97.54Oct 13, 10:10 UTC
+$3.31settled
Why?
Why it bought NO
No at 0.986, resolves in 5.8h (limit 3d); favourite-longshot bias, small size ($100, up to 0.99)

Near Certain: performance, 30d (@realahmadkhan22 · Resolution Harvester)

Daily P&L

Exposure by category

Why it bought NO